Macroeconomic Forecast Kazakhstan

The Kazakh economy contracted by 3.0% y-o-y during the first half of 2009 and is on track to meet our full-year -1.9% forecast. Beyond this year's recession, we expect to see a fairly swift acceleration in growth on the back of rising oil prices and an improvement in domestic demand. To be sure, we forecast positive, albeit mild, growth of 2.4% in 2010 and 5.5% in 2011. Moreover, we project an average annual rate of expansion of 6.6% over the course of 2010-2014 compared to 8.3% during 2004-2008, with income per capita set to increase to US$13,228 at the end of our five-year forecast period.

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