Macroeconomic Forecast Croatia

Croatian industrial production contracted by an average of 9.8% from January to August compared to the same period in 2008. Despite the still rapid pace of contraction, we note that the trend is nevertheless down, with industrial production falling 8.3% y-o-y in August, slightly down from the 9.1% y-o-y drop in July, and significantly lower than the 13.8% y-o-y contraction recorded in June. That said, with growth set to pick up only slowly in both the eurozone (which accounted for 54.8% of Croatia's exports in Q109) and in Bosnia (which accounted for 11.5% of exports in Q109) we expect industrial

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