Social Divisions To Continue Accentuating Political Risks

Major socio-political divisions between Turkey's moderate Islamist government and secularist military, judiciary and opposition parties are expected to remain major risks to political stability through the long term. In 2010, disagreements over ethnic Kurdish cultural policy, a proposed rapprochement with Armenia, an ongoing coup trial against former military officers, and alleged government illegal wiretapping will be potential flashpoints for an accentuation of ideological fissures. While our core view is for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government to remain intact until scheduled elections in mid-2011, there are risks that ructions could slow policy enactment, while also shifting political momentum toward the opposition.

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