Macroeconomic Forecast Lithuania

According to a recent flash estimate from Statistics Lithuania, real GDP contracted by 14.3% in Q3, following declines of 19.7% and 13.1% in Q2 and Q1, respectively. Though we expect base effects and inventory restocking to propel headline growth higher in Q4, we nevertheless caution that given the dynamics of Lithuania's recession this year, we expect the economy to continue contracting in the double-digits into early 2010.

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