Macroeconomic Forecast Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyz exports fell 6.7% y-o-y in Q209, following on from a 2.5% y-o-y drop in January-March this year. The global recession has weighed on demand for Kyrgyzstan's main exports, which include minerals, energy, cotton, wool and tobacco, and which largely go to other CIS countries. Although we expect external demand to pick up over the remainder of the year, we caution that the economic recovery will be slow, and as such are forecasting a 5.0% decrease in Kyrgyz exports in 2009. Going forward, we expect increased foreign investment and a pick up in global demand beginning in 2010, and forecast

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