Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

Tajik industrial production rose 6.0% y-o-y in August, following a 6.7% y-o-y drop in H109. The upturn in industrial production, which began with a mild 0.8% y-o-y increase in July, indicates that demand for Tajikistan's chief exports, aluminium, electricity and cotton is rising. Going forward, we expect Tajik industrial production to pick up further as the global recovery kicks in. Indeed, the recessions in Russia and Turkey appear to have troughed in H109, and we expect them to start showing growth again in Q110. Considering these two countries consumer around one-third of Tajik exports, we are sanguine about the medium term outlook, and we maintain our forecast for 1.1% average industrial production growth in 2009, and 6.7% in 2010.

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