Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

Mongolian exports fell 37% y-o-y in Q209, down to US$440.6m from US$649.4m over the same period last year. This came chiefly as a result of a 57% y-o-y drop in exports of copper concentrate and a 60% y-o-y decrease in non-monetary gold outflows, which together made up 34.3% of total exports in Q209. Going forward, we expect exports to pick up, thanks to a global increase in demand for commodities and greater export volumes as more mining companies enter the Mongolian market. We maintain our forecast for US$1.77bn total exports by end-year.

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