Macroeconomic Forecast Turkey

Turkish unemployment fell further to 13.0% in June, down from 13.8% in May and the multi-year high of 16.1% seen in February. Despite the declining trend, we caution that this should not be interpreted as a strong signal of economic recovery. Seasonal variations have historically resulted in lower unemployment during the summer period, and we highlight that the jobless rate remains well above the 9.4% over the same period in 2008. Indeed, our core view remains for unemployment to begin rising again through the third and fourth quarters. That said, as a result of the latest figures and signals that the recession has troughed, we have revised our end-year jobless rate forecast to 15.0%, down from 16.0%.

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