Q2 GDP: The Trough Is Nigh

Q209 real GDP growth dynamics across Europe have reaffirmed our core macroeconomic view that H109 was the trough of the recession. That said, we maintain that a strong recovery remains off the cards for the time being, with any improvement in growth in H209 likely to be driven by base effects and a reduction in the output gap as opposed to any fundamental improvement in aggregate demand. As the region moves into the recovery phase though, relative value positioning of the constituent economies will become more pronounced, with Turkey, Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia looking particularly better placed.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: