Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

Mongolian inflation fell to a three-year low of 2.9% y-o-y in July, bringing the 3-month moving average to 5.0%. Mongolia has experienced among the fastest disinflation in the world through H208-H109, with consumer price growth having now dropped by 30.8 percentage points since August 2008. We have revised down our end-year forecast for inflation to 3.0% to factor in the most recent figures, though we stress that over the longer run, we do expect rapid price increases to return. Indeed, as foreign investment accelerates sharply in 2010 on the back of developments in the mining sector, we expect inflation to rise back to 9.0% by end-year.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: