Macroeconomic Forecast Slovakia

Slovakia's economy contracted by 5.3% y-o-y in real terms in the second quarter of the year, according to a flash estimate provided by the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic on August 13. In quarter-on-quarter terms, moreover, the economy expanded by 2.2%. This data fits well with our core view that Slovakia's recession would trough in H1, with the pace of decline set to moderate through the remainder of the year. We maintain our forecast for real GDP to contract by 4.2% in 2009, before posting growth of 1.3% in 2010.

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