Macroeconomic Forecast Montenegro

Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic stated on July 10 that he expects the country to fall into recession this year due to the negative impact of the global recession on the economy. According to the latest estimate available from the ministry of finance, real GDP growth reached 8.1% in 2008 (below the 10.7% recorded in 2007). We expect real GDP to contract by 5.8% in 2009 as foreign investment falls and the tourism and mining sectors suffer through the regional downturn. Going forward, we forecast trend growth to be lower than the 7.8% average rate of expansion recorded from 2005-2007, and expect real GDP to average 3.1% from 2011-2013.

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