Current Account Surplus, Net Capital Inflows To Continue

The stabilisation in the oil market through the second quarter has substantially altered the short-term outlook for the Russian balance of payments. We have revised up our 2009 Russian current account forecast, now expecting a surplus of US$24.9bn (1.9% of GDP). Moreover, we believe that the risks of another substantial outflow of capital have been mitigated for H209. This coincides with the upward revision to our end-year reserve and exchange rate forecasts in June, with reserves now expected to remain above US$300bn and the rouble to remain above RUB42.00/basket.

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