Macroeconomic Forecast Belarus

Belarusian foreign exchange reserves fell to US$2.10bn in June from US$2.64bn the previous month. In the process, reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since November 2007, even despite the large influx of IMF and Russian emergency financial aid to National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) coffers. We caution that this is a sign that both the Belarusian ruble peg and the broader financial system remain under considerable pressure, and hold to our view that the country will need further inflows of multilateral aid to avert a more pronounced financial crisis.

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