Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

Consumer price inflation in Mongolia came in at 4.7% y-o-y in June, down from 7.4% and 12.6% in May and April, respectively. Inflation is now a full 29 percentage points below 2008's high recorded in July. With domestic demand likely to remain subdued through the end of the year, we believe inflationary pressures will be minimal going forward. That said, low base effects in the fourth quarter of the year will help push consumer price inflation slightly higher by end-year.

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