Macroeconomic Forecast Lithuania

Industrial output in Lithuania continued to fall in June, according to latest data, with production contracting by 16.9% y-o-y. June's figure follows falls of 19.3% and 25.5% in May and April, respectively, and marked the ninth straight month where output contracted in year-on-year terms. Though we expect production to continue falling through the remainder of the year, we expect the pace of decline to begin to moderate through the second half of the year, and target an average rate of contraction of 7.2% y-o-y in 2009.

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