Macroeconomic Forecast Uzbekistan

We believe that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan will keep the sum's crawling peg against the US dollar over the medium term, allowing for controlled depreciation against the greenback. Specifically, we target an end-year exchange rate of UZS1,560/US$, depreciating to UZS1,896/US$ by end-2013. Continued weakening of the sum will go some way to bolster the export sector going forward, though will also stoke inflationary pressures over the medium term.

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