Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

Despite the potential for a sustained rally in global commodity prices through H209, we believe that the severity of the global downturn so far this year will ensure that Turkmen growth slows towards our forecast 5.4% outturn for 2009. Moreover, Turkmenistan's relative economic isolation will likely prevent an even deeper downturn from developing. Beyond 2009, we believe that increasing demand for Turkmen energy exports, on the back of an improving global economic outlook, will help drive growth up to a forecast average 9.6% over the course of 2010-2013.

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