Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

Our view that the Polish balance of payments would undergo a significant correction over the medium term has already started to play out well, with the current account posting a surplus of EUR92mn during the first four months of 2009, reversing the EUR6.3bn deficit seen in the same period a year earlier. While we still expect to see a current account deficit in 2009, we expect it to narrow to 3.4% from 6.0% in 2008. We continue to caution, however, that should foreign financing of the current account deficit suddenly dry up, the balance of payments adjustment would be brought forward, potentially derailing our medium-term forecasts.

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