Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

Tentatively indicating that a significant correction to Poland's balance of payments is underway, the latest data for February show a EUR525mn current account surplus. This was the first monthly surplus since September 2006 and marked the largest positive outturn since the beginning of the National Bank of Poland (NBP)'s data series in 2001. Though monthly balance of payment data is notoriously volatile and subject to frequent revision, we nonetheless believe that given sustained zloty weakness and the collapse in consumer confidence towards the end of Q109, the current account shortfall will deflate through 2009.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: