Macroeconomic Forecast Romania

Romania ran a budget deficit in Q109 equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, according to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics. Consolidated revenues totalled RON38.1bn (7.2% of GDP), a 6.0% y-o-y decrease, while spending reached RON45.9bn. According to conditions stipulated under the country's IMF stand-by arrangement, Romania's centre-left government is allowed to target a 4.6% of GDP fiscal deficit. We expect the budget deficit to widen to 5.1% of GDP in 2009, due to the government's cyclical fiscal policy and the potential increase in spending in the run-up to presidential elections at the end of the year.

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