Macroeconomic Forecast Montenegro

According to the Central Bank of Montenegro , exports fell to US$0.7bn (an 18.0% y-o-y contraction) while imports expanded by 0.5% to total US$2.8bn in 2008. Going forward, we expect demand for Montenegrin exports (typically two-thirds of which are base metals) to fall in 2009 due to weak global demand. As a result, we forecast a narrowing of the current account deficit to 13.9% of GDP in 2009 (from 27.8% in 2008).

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