Macroeconomic Forecast Macedonia

Macedonian unemployment rose to 33.5% at end-Q408 from 33.0% at end-Q308, precisely hitting our end-2008 unemployment projection, which we set back in early September. While this high figure certainly masks a substantial grey economy, the uptick in joblessness in Q4 nevertheless reflects the impact of the global financial crisis beginning to filter-through to the Macedonian labour market. Going forward, we forecast the official unemployment rate to soar to 40.0% in 2009 and 2010 as the economy sinks further into recession.

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