Macroeconomic Forecast Uzbekistan

With the global economic downturn continuing to depress commodity prices across the board, we believe that the sources of growth for the Uzbek economy will be few and far between through 2009. As such, we forecast real GDP to grow by a below trend 5.1% this year, though expect a marked uptick towards an 8.0% expansion the following year as global demand conditions improve. We caution, however, that should the global economy fail to reach bottom during H109, the ability of the Uzbek economy to enjoy a spritely recovery may come into doubt, and as such, the risks to our forecast remain weighted to the downside.

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