Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

With global energy prices remaining under considerable pressure from widespread demand destruction, Turkmenistan's growth story will suffer a significant set back this year. In particular, the price of Brent crude oil continues to hover around the US$50/bbl mark, while the Henry Hub Natural Gas Contract has sank below US$4 mmBtu - both of which are a poor sign for the health of Turkmenistan's export revenues this year. As such, this underpins our below trend 5.4% real GDP growth forecast this year, with an improvement in global demand conditions in 2010 to send growth to a more palatable 8.5% that year.

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