Macroeconomic Forecast Serbia

Serbian exports totalled US$0.49bn in January, down 29.1% y-o-y. Meanwhile, reflecting lower business and consumer confidence alongside reduced access to credit, imports contracted by a massive 43.0%, totalling US$0.82bn. The current account registered a small deficit of US$0.07bn, substantially lower than the US$0.46bn registered in January 2009. Going forward, we forecast the current account deficit to narrow to 12.9% of GDP in 2009 (from 18.4% in 2008) as external and domestic demand continues to falter.

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