Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

Polish unemployment ticked up to 10.9% in February from 10.5% in January and is set to trend higher through 2009. Indeed, with the economy forecast to contract by 2.7% this year (driven by a collapse in domestic and external demand), firm cut backs will see the jobless rate rise. With consumer expenditure already set to suffer from the decline in real wealth and slowdown in domestic lending, the surge in unemployment will further compound consumer sentiment and in turn spending. We forecast unemployment reaching 13.5% at end-2009, falling to 10.7% at end-2010 as both domestic and external demand start to recover.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: