Macroeconomic Forecast Mongolia

Deflation continues to play out in Mongolia, with the latest data from the Bank of Mongolia (BOM) showing consumer price growth slowing to 27.2% y-o-y in October, down from 31.7% in September, and the yearly high of 33.7% recorded in August. Going forward, we believe an expected slowdown in economic activity, combined with the ongoing correction in global soft commodity and energy prices will drive the deflationary trend further, and as such, we maintain our end-2009 inflation forecast of 14.0%.

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