Wishful Thinking

Montenegro’s recent decision to split from Serbia after a public referendum has been welcomed in Moldova’s separatist province of Transdniestria, which continues to seek its own independence. However, we believe any renewed hopes for swift independence will be short-lived and ultimately futile. Unlike the Montenegrin case, there is no international backing for – or even recognition of – Transdniestria as a sovereign state, and certainly not the same level of peace or communication between the respective authorities. As such, there is unlikely to be any spillover effect of Montenegro’s independence in this or any other CIS frozen conflict.

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