Macroeconomic Forecast Lithuania

Statistics for Lithuania's economic growth continue to confirm the country's position as one of fastest growing economies in Europe, supported by strong consumer spending and gross fixed capital formation. With preliminary government estimates in Q403 suggesting unexpectedly high growth in output, we have revised our estimate for end-year growth in 2003 up to 8.5%. According to statistics office director, Algirdas Semeta, output in industry and construction contributed most to growth last year. Although we do not believe that economic growth over the forecast period will rival 2003 figures, due to a deceleration of convergence of output levels between Lithuania and current EU members, we believe that economic growth will remain above 6% for the remainder of the forecast period.

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