Macroeconomic Forecast Slovenia

Industrial output in Slovenia fell 1.5% in May compared to the previous month, according to latest data from the Statistics Office. The fall was led by an ongoing decline in the mining sector, and a fall in production of consumer goods. On an annual basis, however, industrial output rose 1.2% in May. While still positive, this marks a sharp slowdown from the 7.0% annual growth recorded in 2007. We currently forecast full-year growth of 4.0% this year, falling further to 3.7% in 2009. This is in line with our core scenario of a moderation in economic growth ahead, with risks mainly weighted on the downside.

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