Robust Export Growth To Buoy Current Account

On the back of the upgrade to our 2008 oil price forecast to US$100.00/bbl with upside risks, the prospects for Russian export growth is looking the brightest in recent years. This will have major impacts on the current account with the surplus now forecast to widen for the first time since 2005 to 6.5% of GDP in 2008. While we are still forecasting for the current account to slip into deficit over the long term, we have pushed back the year we expect this to occur from 2010 to 2011.

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