Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

May 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

The current account remained firmly in the red during January-February, posting a EUR2.4bn deficit and widening by 46.7% y-o-y. As a result of negative net exports continuing to offset the positive gains made by trade in services and current transfers, the current account is forecast to remain in deficit over our five-year forecast period. Indeed, we forecast the deficit reaching 3.3% of GDP in 2008 (albeit narrowing from 2007's bumper 3.7%), narrowing to 2.2% by 2012. Though the shortfall should pose few management problems, we caution that the potential for capital inflows to slow on the back of the deterioration in global credit conditions may increases stresses on the current account.

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