Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

April 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Following 2007's multiyear high economic growth rate of 7.0%, we believe that real GDP growth will remain robust over our five-year forecast period. Despite our projection for a moderation in growth in 2008 and 2009 to 6.9% and 6.7%, respectively, we expect an uptick from 2010 to 7.0%, to edge up further to 7.7% at the end of our five-year forecast period. Growth will largely be driven by a substantial expansion in industrial output, with a forecast 10.2% average increase in production through to 2012. That said, we caution that without substantial investment in power generation plants, energy supplies will remain unpredictable, potentially impeding productivity gains going forward.

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