Uzbekistan

Though we believe that 2007 is likely to be a peak year for economic growth, with real GDP expanding by 9.5%, we nonetheless expect economic growth to remain robust over our five-year forecast period. Indeed, we forecast real GDP to expand by 7.6% in 2008 and to average a solid 7.8% each year through to 2012. This will be underpinned by Uzbekistan's growing industrial base and improving economic and political relations with Russia, which will prove fruitful for domestic exporters. However, we caution that a growing dependence on Russian demand and capital opens the Uzbek economy to the dangers of Russia's potentially adverse foreign policy.

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