Kyrgyzstan

March 2008 | Risk Summary

Economic growth came in at a stellar 8.2% in 2007, the highest rate of expansion since 1997. This has been largely driven by the strength of industrial production, with output increasing by 7.3% over the year. We believe that economic growth will remain robust in 2008, although we are not as optimistic as the Kyrgyz government, which expects growth in the range of 7.3% to 8.5% this year. Instead, we expect real GDP to expand by 7.0% in 2008 and to be mainly driven by continuing expansion in industrial output. Moreover, we forecast economic growth averaging 4.8% over our five-year forecast period.

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