Macroeconomic Forecast Poland

Consumer price inflation grew by 3.0% y-o-y in October, up from the 2.3% y-o-y growth of the previous month, and at its highest level since May 2005. This owes largely to seasonal factors, with the summer drought and related impact on food prices, being the main cause behind the recent price surge. We believe that inflationary pressures are likely to persist until Q108, by which time the effect of higher food prices will have largely filtered out. We expect inflation to reach 2.6% by end-2007, marginally falling to 2.5% in 2008.

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