Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

BMI View: It is early days to review our main macroeconomic forecasts for Turkmenistan in light of President Niyazov's death. Given the dominance of the energy sector, the greatest threat to economic growth and stability would come from any disruption to gas output or exports, but we at present attach a low probability to this, especially in the short term. In any case, the paucity and unreliability of official statistics makes generating concrete forecasts a largely meaningless exercise. Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the economy is growing relatively quickly on the back of hydrocarbon output and exports, albeit not as fast as the 20+% GDP expansion officially reported for H106.

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