Macroeconomic Forecast Kyrgyzstan

BMI View: GDP growth has shown a disappointing downturn of late, with the economy expanding 2.6% y-o-y in January-October, according to preliminary data. Whilst this is still a rebound from 2005's contracting economy, we have revised down our end-2006 forecast to 3.5%, from a previous 5%. Going forward, the expansion in fixed investment of over 25% y-o-y should help to diversify the economy away from the declining gold industry, though with GDP growth projected at 2.8% in 2007 and 3% in 2008, the country will continue to trail the region in the short term

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