Macroeconomic Forecast Uzbekistan

According to latest official data, the Uzbek economy expanded 7.3% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2006, setting it in line to reach our forecast rate of 7.2% by the end of the year. The expansion is being aided by robust export growth (the foreign trade surplus stood at US$1.2bn in the same period), whilst double-digit expansions in industrial output (10.2%), construction (10.7%) and fixed capital investments (10%) also played an important role. Going forward, the lucrative energy sector should continue to spur robust growth, though double-digit inflation and a relatively undiversified economy pose short- and long-term risks

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