Macroeconomic Forecast Kyrgyzstan

BMI View: GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan is beginning to show signs of rebounding from last year's recession, reaching 3.1% year-on-year in H106. This is despite gold production, which is suffering from depleted resources and inadequate investment, falling over 25% and dragging industrial output down 6.8% on this time last year. We expect base-level effects to contribute to even faster growth in H206, forecasting a 5% full-year expansion. However, ongoing political turmoil and declining gold output will result in another slowdown, to 2.8% in 2007.

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