Macroeconomic Forecast Moldova

BMI View: Industrial output contracted 6.4% in H106, according to the National Statistics Bureau, on the back of a 42% decline in wine production caused by the Russian trade embargo on Moldovan produce since March. Although strong remittance inflows continues to support robust consumption and investment activity in the domestic economy, the loss of exports and subsequent plunge in output increases the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in GDP growth this year, falling below the 6% BMI currently forecasts.

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