Macroeconomic Forecast Uzbekistan

BMI View: The reliability of state statistics remains questionable, as the government maintains its inflation forecast range at an over-optimistic 6-8% for 2006-2007. A 20% hike in public sector wages and social benefits in July will add pressures to price growth, which we already anticipated at around 14% in 2005 (the government reported 7.8%). Further fiscal loosening can also be expected, as presidential elections approach in 2007. As such, we believe inflation will remain in double figures in 2006, and attach an upside bias to our forecast of 7% in the following year.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: