Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

BMI View: According to latest official data, exports expanded 14.3% year-on-year in the first four months of 2006, reaching US$1.87bn and resulting in a trade surplus of US$0.79bn. Over half of all exports were natural gas, and almost two-thirds headed to European countries (though this mainly entailed Russia). The rapid expansion came despite a minor fall in gas volumes, as global prices rose sharply. A new price deal with Russia, which imports 93% of Turkmenistan's gas exports, will accelerate this trend, and will likely prompt an upward revision of our medium-term trade surplus forecasts.

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