Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

GDP growth is estimated to have decelerated to 6.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q106, from over 7% in the same period of 2005. This was despite strong output growth in the aluminium industry and an improved external position. The comparatively sluggish start to the year feeds through to a downside risk to our forecast of 7.5% growth in 2006, though if exports continue to expand strongly this rate of growth will remain feasible.

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