Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

Official sources are continuing the practice of reporting wildly unrealistic data, as GDP growth is stated as growing 20% in Q106. The limited availability of data make it difficult to prove the inaccuracy of this reported expansion, though relatively minor activity in natural gas production - a key driver in the economy - is one indicator. We expect GDP growth to remain robust, at 7.5% in 2006 (from an estimated 7% in 2005), and accelerate gradually as trade in the energy industry increases.

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