Macroeconomic Forecast Tajikistan

After ending 2005 at 7.1%, up from 5.6% in 2004, inflation has crept even higher at the start of this year, measuring 8% in January. On the demand side, growing remittances from workers abroad is providing a boost to private consumption. However, it is on the supply side that prices are soaring, with producer prices showing a 35.2% y-o-y increase in January. High global energy prices and moderating industrial output growth are the main causes of this trend, but we expect these pressure to subside throughout 2006, with consumer price growth ending the year on 6.2% (an increase of 0.7 percentage points on our previous forecast).

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