Macroeconomic Forecast Turkmenistan

Officials report that Turkmenistan's GDP growth was 20.7% in 2005, the seventh consecutive year it has topped 15%. However, we believe state figures to be greatly inflated. The IMF usually divides the official rate by three to estimate a more plausible figure, and our 7% estimate for 2005 is therefore more likely. While the government will continue reporting double-digit growth, we see growth remaining around 7%, supported by natural gas production. Amid high global gas prices and new export agreements, the trade surplus will continue widening, though faltering external demand and flagging production levels are downside risks

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