Sound Headline Numbers, Weaker Underlying Picture

Last year saw the current account surplus rise to its highest ratio to GDP since 2000, as Russia witnessed a sharp improvement in its terms of trade. Revisions to our already bullish outlook for global oil prices mean that we expect the country to continue to post a comfortable external surplus, both in nominal terms and as a percentage of GDP, throughout much of this decade. An examination of real export and import trends reveals a less rosy picture, however, and highlights the negative contribution that the external sector is making to overall economic

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