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Political Risk / Poland

Losing Friends

December 2005 | Political Risk Analysis

In one of his first press conferences as Poland’s new prime minster, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz boldly stated that adoption of the single currency was unlikely to fall within his four-year term in office. In that time, economic progress against Maastricht criteria is instead likely to drift: a pledge to boost growth, twinned with likely tax cuts, will probably lead to a growing, not narrowing budget deficit, while the central bank warns that public debt will reach 54.6% of GDP by the end of 2006. Heavy reliance by the minority PiS government on the support of eurosceptic party Self-Defence is also worrying.

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